Vaping set to overtake smoking in UK by 2025, new report reveals

The number of adults vaping in the UK is expected to surpass those who smoke for the first time next year, according to a new briefing from the Global State of Tobacco Harm Reduction (GSTHR).

This shift marks a significant milestone in the country’s public health efforts, driven by both consumer behavior and progressive government policies supporting safer nicotine alternatives, the GSTHR report, titled ‘A Smokefree UK? How Research, Policy and Vapes Have Cut Smoking Rates’, said.

The report forecasts, based on data from the Office for National Statistics and Action on Smoking and Health, that by 2025, only 10 per cent of UK adults will smoke, down from nearly 24 per cent in 2005. In contrast, the number of vapers is expected to continue rising beyond the 11 per cent recorded in 2024, making vaping the dominant form of nicotine consumption for the first time.

“When vaping overtakes smoking next year in the UK, it will not be simply the consequence of a consumer-led revolution, although this has been significant, it will also be the result of successive governments making pragmatic policy decisions based on the evidence in front of them,” David MacKintosh, director at Knowledge·Action·Change (K·A·C), which leads the GSTHR project, observed.

He credited the availability of safer nicotine products like vapes and government initiatives such as the 2023 ‘swap to stop’ campaign for accelerating this transformation.

The report provides another important case study showcasing the potential of tobacco harm reduction through the adoption of safer nicotine products, following GSTHR’s recent Briefing Paper on the effect heated tobacco products have had in Japan.